A report published by NITI Aayog and the Technical Information, Forecasting and Assessment Council (TIFAC) shows that under the Optimism Scenario, the penetration rate of electric two-wheelers in the country will reach 100% by the fiscal year 2026-27 (FY27) , June 28, titled “Predicting Electric Two-Wheeler Penetration in India: A Bottom-Up Analysis.”
It also forecasts a penetration rate of 72% in the “technology-driven scenario” in which current initiatives such as subsidies are eliminated by 2024.
Under an optimistic scenario, projected sales of two-wheelers in the country could surge to 2.2 Cr units per annum by fiscal 2031, the report said. In this scenario, battery costs should continue to fall at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8%, vehicle performance should increase by 20% through FY24, and demand incentives should continue through FY31.
In technology-driven scenario, incentives removed after FY24, battery cost cut by 8% per annum, two-wheel EV performance improved by 5% in FY24-FY26 and 10% in FY27 %, sales volume is expected to reach 2.102 million units per annum by FY24 and 1.79 Cr units by FY31.
The report forecasts a penetration rate of 72% in the “Technology-Driven Scenario” in which current initiatives such as subsidies will be removed by 2024
At some point in the future, there may be an ecosystem in place to enforce regulation of electric vehicles or other clean transportation options: report
Government think tank NITI Aayog said the shift to electric vehicles, especially in the two-wheeler segment, could come sooner than expected.